czwartek, 10 lutego 2011

Global market overview - issue 2011/5

World stock markets strengthened last week as corporate earnings and manufacturing expansion on both sides of the Atlantic eclipsed unrest in Egypt. 

Stocks in Emerging Europe also rose, with the top performance from Bulgarian SOFIX (+5.2%) which benefi tted from shares in investment holding company Chimimport AD (+9.5%) - the only Bulgarian stock included in the regional gauge SETX (South-Eastern European Traded Index).

The Greek market was up 4% last week on the back of a more positive outlook on the IMF and EU granting an extension on its loans. Turkey, meanwhile, recovered to finish up 5%, despite worries regarding its monetary policy, as confidence rose that a worst-case scenario in Egypt could be avoided. The market in Cyprus was slightly negative.

Strong performances from oil and gas stocks were behind a 2.3% Russian stock market gain over the week. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian equity market outperformed again last week on the back of good corporate news. During the week, the UX index surged 5.9%, but stocks traded on foreign markets underperformed, mainly on the back of a mixed performance in the agriculture sector.

The Egyptian market remained closed for the entire trading week as anti-government protests continued, although it is expected to open next week. Other markets in the region saw panic selling, beginning with heavy sell-offs on the first trading day of the week, including a 5% drop on the S&P Saudi index. But markets managed to subsequently bounce back from weekly lows as investors saw the sell-off as an opportunity to raise their exposure to the market.

Release of PMI numbers from China did not restore investor confidence and Asian countries remained lacklustre while several bourses were closed for Chinese New Year celebrations. The Asean40 Index remained flat, up a mere 0.6% w-o-w, with minimal gains.

In India, the Sensex and Nifty fell over the week, dipping 388 points (-2.11%) and 116 points (-2.11%) to close at 18,008 and 5,396 respectively. For the week ending Jan 21 food Inflation was 17.05% and the fuel price index climbed to 11.61%.

The Pakistan KSE100TM index remained under pressure during the first three trading sessions of the week on the back of pre-emptive selling by local investors, despite the central bank going against expectations and keeping its discount rate unchanged at 14%. Market sentiment improved in the later part of the week on encouraging macro and political news. In its fourth Monetary Policy statement for FY11 the central bank opted to keep its policy rate intact at 14%, citing a fall in government borrowing, a surplus current account balance in 1HFY11 and optimism on the fiscal front. At the same time it raised its inflation forecast to 15-16%, and stressed the need to limit fi scal slippages.

Latin American markets recorded a slight rise over the week, up just 0.4%, amid mixed performance around the region. Peru was the best performer, adding 3.5%, followed by Mexico, which grew 2.6%. Meanwhile, Chilean stocks were up slightly, appreciating 0.3%, but Brazilian stocks, which make up more than two-thirds of the Latin American index, fell 1.3%, despite being buoyed by heavyweight Petrobras which rose 4.1% over the week. Brazil's financial services companies underperformed amid concerns the government could limit credit or impose additional interest rate hikes.

Source: SFM World Funds

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