sobota, 22 stycznia 2011

Global market overview - issue 2011/2

World stock markets prolonged their upward trajectory last week, helped by successful placements of Portugal, Spanish and Italian debt as well as a successful start to the 4Q2010 corporate earnings season.

Last week the Greek and Cyprus markets strongly rebounded after touching fresh lows. The Turkish and Egyptian markets were relatively flat. In Egypt market sentiment will depend on how markets interpret the change in leadership in Tunisia that some people are arguing will also aff ect other countries in the region with similar political systems.

Russian equities performed impressively with the RTS gaining 5.6% as rising oil prices continues to lift confi dence in Russia's economy. One of the top stories during the week was the Rosneft – BP equity swap (9.5% stake in Rosneft – 5% in BP). This deal looks pretty interesting for Rosneft: JV (67% Rosneft/ 33% BP) is to explore three Russian Arctic off shore license areas with total resources of 36bn bbls of crude oil. Tax breaks for these fi elds are likely – an additional catalyst for further share upside and Rosneft gets access to off shore technology/expertise.

The Asean40 Index started the week lower by 2%, pushed by continued worries in the Eurozone, as Portugal came under pressure to accept a rescue package to ensure the prevention of contagion to other European countries. Asian markets began to inch higher as worries were diminished by Japan's commitment to subscribe to European bonds to help fund the Irish bailout. As the week progressed, Bank of Korea surprised markets with a 25bps rate hike to 2.75% in an attempt to tame infl ation but fortunately, the news was already priced in by investors.

The China A share market pulled back this week on concerns over domestic infl ation. The CSI 300 index retreated by 2.4%. In terms of sector performance, telecommunication services and fi nancials outperformed while materials, information technology and healthcare lagged. Among the most important news of the week were the new plans of the Chinese government regarding the Green Energy sector. China plans to invest about 4 trillion Yuan (USD605 billion) to build a smart grid system in the nation over the next decade. The investment is partly intended to help grid companies increase their capability to absorb a greater amount of clean energy electricity. Moreover, according to the Ministry of Science and Technology, China will raise its total installed wind capacity to 100 gigawatts by 2015, up from an estimated 40 gigawatts in 2010. Finally, the Asian nation expects its total solar capacity to be 5 gigawatts by 2015, compared to 1 gigawatt last year.

Indian equities extended losses from last week due to concerns about rising inflation and its impact on interest rates along with FII outfl ows. The benchmark sensex and nifty declined by 831 points (-4.22%) and 250 points (-4.23%) to close at 18860 and 5655 respectively. Declines were broad-based and all sector indices closed in the red. Those that are rate sensitive - capital goods, real estate and banking stocks - were the top decliners while FMCG stocks outperformed. Rising global commodity prices can be a problem for the economy and infl ationary trends. Any sharp rise from current levels, especially energy prices, will impact the economy due to India's dependence on energy imports.

The Latin American markets appreciated by 0.9% last week. The best performing markets were Brazil, which increased by 1.5% and Chile, which increased by 0.9%. In the rest of the region, Peru, Mexico and Colombia decreased by 2.7%, 0.7% and 0.2%, respectively. In Brazil, the best performers were utilities and telecommunication companies.

Source: SFM World Funds

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